Scientists have warned that communities risk being unable to recover from major weather events before the next one hits.
El Niño climate patterns are likely to be become more frequent and extreme by 2050 as temperatures rise.
In a new study, published in the latest Nature journal, University of Colorado – Boulder climate scientists said the planet could see more frequent extreme El Niño events if greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase.
The modelling suggests that, at the current rate, one in two El Niño events could be extreme by 2050.
“It’s pretty scary that 2050 is not very far away,” lead author Pedro DiNezio said.
“If these extreme events become more frequent, society may not have enough time to recover, rebuild and adapt before the next El Niño strikes. The consequences would be devastating.”
The report said an El Niño climate pattern from mid-2023 to mid-2024 had prompted 12 months of new temperature records and was likely the “culprit” for unprecedented heat, floods and droughts worldwide.
El Niño occurs when water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean rise above average for an extended period.
Since the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began collecting data in the 1950s, the agency has recorded three to four extreme El Niño events.
“El Niño events are difficult to simulate and predict because there are many mechanisms driving them,” Dr DiNezio said.
“This has hindered our ability to produce accurate predictions and help society prepare and reduce the potential damage.”
Dr DiNezio and his team set out to simulate El Niño events in the past 21,000 years, since the peak of Earth’s last Ice Age, using a computer model.
“The model shows that during the Ice Age, when Earth’s climate was colder, extreme El Niño events were very rare,” the research report said.
“As the planet warmed since the end of the Ice Age, the frequency and intensity of El Niño have been increasing.”
The full report is on the University of Colorado website.
