The drought in southern Australia is expected to lead to a drop in Australia’s agricultural production of more than $2 billion in the next financial year.
The latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast showed the gross value was tipped to fall by 2.8 percent to $90.7 billion in 2025-26, driven by lower crop and livestock production volumes.
ABARES Executive Director Jared Greenville said favourable seasonal conditions across northern NSW, Queensland and southern Western Australia had provided a strong start to the 2025–26 winter cropping season.
Dr Greenville said, however, production outcomes across South Australia, western Victoria, southern NSW and northern cropping regions of Western Australia, where much of the winter crop had been dry sown, rested on a knife’s edge and were highly dependent on rain falling in many of these regions.
“Winter cropping conditions in those areas are at a critical point in the season, especially where there is a total lack of soil moisture,” he said.
“The rainfall outlook for these regions is currently positive, which is embedded in our current forecasts, but if not realised creates a downside risk to national production figures.”
Dr Greenville said nationally, an expected fall in crop production in 2025-26 would lead to a $2.1 billion fall in crop value and $0.5 billion reduction in livestock and livestock product values.
