With ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred disrupting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s reported plans to call a Federal election for April 12, the poll is likely to now be held in May.
A slew of public holidays after his preferred April date, because of Easter and Anzac Day, means an election in the first half of May, before the May 17 date on which an election must have been held.
Election analyst Adrian Beaumont has looked at recent polls to see how the voting trends are evolving.
A national Newspoll, conducted March 3–7 from a sample of 1255, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.
Primary votes were 39 percent Coalition (up one), 32 percent Labor (up one), 12 percent Greens (steady), 7 percent One Nation (steady) and 10 percent for all Others (down two).
Newspoll is using a stronger One Nation preference flow to the Coalition than occurred at the 2022 election. By 2022 preference flows, this poll would be near a 50–50 tie.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped nine points to -12, with 53 percent dissatisfied and 41 percent satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval dropped four points to -14. Albanese extended his better PM lead over Dutton to 47–38 (45–40 previously).
This is the first time Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton since September 2024, and also his biggest better PM lead since then. It’s not always the case, but sometimes movements in leaders’ ratings come before a gain in voting intentions.
In the other polls released in the last week, Labor gained a 51–49 lead in a YouGov poll, but the Coalition regained a narrow lead in both the Essential and Morgan polls.
In an additional Newspoll question, by 55–45 respondents said they were not confident that the Dutton Coalition is ready to govern Australia.
Labor gains lead in a YouGov poll
A national YouGov poll, conducted February 28 to March 6 from a sample of 1504, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 21–27 YouGov poll. This is the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024. YouGov will be releasing weekly voting intentions until the election.
Primary votes were 36 percent Coalition (down one), 31 percent Labor (up three), 13 percent Greens (down one), 7 percent One Nation (down one), 1 percent for Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 10 percent independents (steady) and 2 percent others (steady).
YouGov is using preference flows that are weaker for Labor than at the 2022 election, and by 2022 election flows Labor would lead by more than 52–48.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 51 percent dissatisfied and 42 percent satisfied. Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -4. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–39 (42–40 previously).
Essential poll: Coalition takes narrow lead
A national Essential poll, conducted February 26 to March 2 from a sample of 1150, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided using respondent preferences (a 48–48 tie in mid-February). The Coalition has been narrowly ahead since early December except for the previous poll.
Primary votes were 35 percent Coalition (steady), 29 percent Labor (down one), 13 percent Greens (up one), 8 percent One Nation (down one), 1 percent UAP (steady), 10 percent for all Others (up one) and 5 percent undecided (up one).
By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about an unchanged 51–49. Essential should have replaced UAP with Clive Palmer’s new Trumpet of Patriots party.
Albanese’s net approval was down three points to -8, with 49 percent disapproving and 41 percent approving. Dutton’s net approval was up one to -3. By 49–34, voters thought Australia was on the wrong track (51–31 previously).
Essential’s party trusted to handle issues were better for Labor than other issue polls by Resolve and Freshwater. Labor led the Coalition by 33–27 on addressing cost of living pressures and only trailed by 30–29 on managing the economy.
Overall, 52 percent said they were committed to their vote, including 65 percent of Coalition supporters and 52 percent of Labor supporters.
Morgan poll: Coalition retakes narrow lead
A national Morgan poll, conducted February 24 to March 2 from a sample of 1673, gave the Coalition a 50.5–49.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the February 17–23 Morgan poll that was probably a pro-Labor outlier.
Primary votes were 40 percent Coalition (up 3.5), 28.5 percent Labor (down three), 13.5 percent Greens (steady), 4 percent One Nation (down one), 10.5 percent independents (up 0.5) and 3.5 percent others (steady). By 2022 election flows, there was a 50–50 tie, a three-point gain for the Coalition.
By 52–31.5, respondents thought the country is going in the wrong direction (49.5–34.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index fell 2.1 points to 87.7.
– Adrian Beaumont is an Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne.
This article was first published in The Conversation.
