The global tourism sector will need to employ 100 million more people to meet demand within the next decade.
A new World Economic Forum report also found the $16 trillion industry would need to manage increasing frictions between visitors and residence, which is already sparking protests in Europe.
World Economic Forum President Borge Brende said the travel and tourism (T&T) sector, which contributed more than 11 percent of the world’s economy, faced unprecedented growth alongside complex challenges.
Mr Brende said the report, Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point, examined key growth drivers and critical tension points.
He said the report presented 10 guiding principles for sector transformation, from adapting offerings to regenerative practices, supported by an overarching framework for holistic collaboration.
“These principles provide actionable pathways for governments, businesses and communities to harness tourism’s potential while addressing sustainability imperatives, ensuring the sector becomes a catalyst for global resilience, cultural understanding and inclusive prosperity.”
Mr Brende said the past five years had been tumultuous, including worldwide disruptions, geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Yet through it all, the sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience and resourcefulness, and, as a result, it is more important than ever to the global economy.”
He said over the next decade, T&T’s path would hinge on the collaborative action of all stakeholders, and the environment created to allow those partnerships to flourish.
“Governments, businesses, travellers and communities must work together to create an industry that not only fuels economic prosperity but also encourages cultural understanding, environmental regeneration and inclusive growth.”
The guiding principles outlined in the report are:
Growth areas
- Evolving traveller profiles: Fast-growing middle classes, e.g. in India and China, are creating new traveller patterns and are set to reach more than 25 percent share of total international trips by 2030.
- Growing segments as drivers: New segments will emerge and become growth drivers – e.g. live events tourism (16 percent), ecotourism (14percent), meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions tourism (9 percent) and wellness (8 percent).
- Technology development as an enabler: Travel tech (market ~$10 billion in 2024) is expected to double, serving as an enabler for new visitors with continuous focus on flexibility and transparency – but also carrying inherent risks.
Tension points
- Risk of global disruptions: Increased sensitivity to global disruptors such as geopolitical tensions, climate change and demographic shifts could reach $6 trillion losses by 2030, showing need to increase resilience.
- Increased friction between visitors and residents: Visitor-to-resident ratios could rise by at least 50 percent, intensifying challenges and highlighting the need to promote harmonious coexistence and spaces that benefit both.
- Growing pressure on nature: The sector could strain natural systems and account for 15% of total GHG emissions, 10% of global energy consumption and 7% of solid waste production.
- Labour and skills crisis: By 2034, 100 million+ more jobs will have to be filled; some places currently face quantitative and qualitative labour gaps (e.g. in the UK, the sector turnover is > 50 percent, far exceeding other sectors).
- Local capacity-building: SMEs represent 80 percent of the sector; to properly serve expected demand they will require support as travellers seek local experiences.
- Infrastructure and investment requirements: Serving ~30 billion tourists in the future will require infrastructure and asset investments (e.g. ~25 million hotel rooms by 2034), as well as regulatory and other changes to expedite development.
- Cultural and heritage dynamics: Cultural homogenization and heritage degradation pose critical risks, with 97 percent of respondents in a survey agreeing locals are adopting tourist culture over traditions and 70 percent of heritage sites are being threatened by inadequate management plans.
