By Adrian Beaumont
Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.
At the 2025 federal election, the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8 percent, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1 percent. In the two polls below, the total right vote is 49 percent and the total left vote 41–42 percent.
A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted February 16–20 from a sample of 1,551, gave Labor 29 percent of the primary vote (down one since a mid-January DemosAU poll), One Nation 28 percent (up four), the Coalition 21 percent (steady), the Greens 12 percent (down one) and all Others 10 percent (down two).
No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections had Labor winning 76–85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, still enough for a majority but down from 87–95 in January. One Nation was winning 43–54 seats, up from 29–38, the Coalition 9–20 (10–22 previously), the Greens an unchanged 0–2 and all Others 3–7 (6–11 previously).
Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating was down three points to -17, with 46 percent giving him a negative rating and 29 percent positive. Taylor’s initial net positive was -4 (28 percent negative, 24 percent positive), up 14 points on Ley. Pauline Hanson’s net positive improved four points to -1 (38 percent negative, 37 percent positive).
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese led with 37 percent (down two), followed by Hanson at 25 percent (down one) and Taylor at 19 percent (up three from Ley).
Cost of living was rated the most important issue by 45 percent, followed by housing at 18 percent and immigration at 13 percent. Respondents were asked which of Labor, the Greens, One Nation or the Coalition were best for various issues.
Combining One Nation and the Coalition against the combined Labor and Greens gives the right a 44–32 lead over the left on cost of living, a 41–32 lead on housing and a 53–26 lead on immigration.
Fox & Hedgehog poll: Labor down to 51–49 lead
A national Fox & Hedgehog poll for the News Corp papers, conducted February 17–19 from a sample of 1,625, gave Labor 30 percent of the primary vote (up one since an early January Fox & Hedgehog poll), One Nation 25 percent (up four), the Coalition 24 percent (down one), the Greens 12 percent (down two) and all Others 9 percent (down two).
In a “three party preferred”, where Greens and Other voters are asked which of Labor, One Nation or the Coalition they prefer, Labor had 44 percent (down two), One Nation 29 percent (up four) and the Coalition 27 percent (down two). Respondent preferences gave Labor just a 51–49 lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 53–47, a three-point gain for One Nation.
Albanese’s net approval was an unchanged -15 (47 percent disapprove, 32 percent approve). Taylor’s initial net approval was +3 (26 percent approve, 23 percent disapprove) (Ley’s net approval was -13). Albanese led Taylor by 40–35 as preferred PM (39–31 vs Ley). Hanson’s net approval was up 12 points to +9 (44 percent approve, 35 percent disapprove).
On reducing the capital gains tax discount, 35 percent both supported and opposed. By 59–17, respondents supported an immigration ban from “high risk” areas. By 64–15, respondents did not think “ISIS brides” should be allowed to return to Australia.
Resolve poll on international relations
I previously covered the mid-February federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In further questions, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a net likeability with Australians of -60, United States President Donald Trump -41, Chinese President Xi Jinping -26, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu -20, United Kingdom PM Keir Starmer -5 and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky +22.
The US’s net likeability was -17, down 21 since October and 34 from two years ago. China’s was -24, the UK’s +41, Japan’s +53 and New Zealand’s +67.
On the greatest threat to Australia in the next few years, 31 percent said China (down 23 since January 2023), 17 percent the US, 5 percent Russia and 31 percent all equally.
By 62–11, respondents thought Taiwan was a sovereign nation rather than a region of China. On any conflict between China and Taiwan, 36 percent thought Australia should support Taiwan, 7 percent support China and 38 percent not take sides.
On the Ukraine-Russia war, 40 percent thought Australia should maintain its current support for Ukraine, 16 percent increase its support (down nine since March 2025) and 21 percent decrease or withdraw support for Ukraine (up seven).
Tasmanian federal EMRS poll
A Tasmanian federal EMRS poll, conducted February 16–19 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 30 percent of the primary vote, One Nation 24 percent, the Liberals 18 percent, the Greens 13 percent, independents 12 percent and others 2 percent. One Nation only received 6.0 percent at the 2025 federal election in Tasmania.
Labor led the Liberals by 60–40 after preferences (63.3–36.7 at the last election), and they led One Nation by the same 60–40 margin. Figures for the five Tasmanian federal seats were given, based on samples of 200 per seat.
In Braddon, One Nation and Labor were tied 50–50, from primary votes of 34 percent One Nation, 31 percent Labor, 16 percent Liberals, 7 percent Greens and 10 percent independents. Labor was winning all other seats easily. Albanese led Taylor as preferred PM by 45–31 statewide.
Queensland DemosAU poll: LNP far ahead
A Queensland state DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted February 10–20 from a sample of 1,044, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 percent of the primary vote (down three since the October DemosAU poll), Labor 28 percent (down one), One Nation 21 percent (up seven), the Greens 10 percent (down two) and all Others 7 percent (down one).
The LNP led Labor by 56–44 after preferences, a two-point gain for the LNP. All Queensland polls now have the LNP far ahead.
LNP Premier David Crisafulli had a net +16 approval, with 39 percent positive, 38 percent neutral and 23 percent negative. Labor leader Steven Miles was at net -10. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred premier by 43–32 (44–32 previously). By 44–36, respondents thought Queensland was headed in the right direction (42–38 previously).
Adrian Beaumont is an Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. This article was first published by The Conversation.