The global movement towards net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 is likely to have a relatively positive impact on employment, a new OECD assessment concludes.
The 2024 OECD Employment Outlook says around 20 percent of the workforce are in jobs that are likely to expand during the net zero transition.
In contrast, industries that account for 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions employ only seven percent of the workforce.
That group will be the biggest losers from the transition, with workers in those industries expected to experience income falls 24 percent larger than other impacted industries over a six-year period.
This was due to these sectors currently paying relatively high wages for routine‑manual work and displaced workers not being able to match those salaries elsewhere.
“This transition (to net zero) will have profound impacts on the labour market and on the jobs of millions of workers,” the OECD report said.
“Aggregate employment effects are estimated to be limited in the short run, but many jobs will be lost in the shrinking greenhouse gas-intensive industries, while many others will be created in expanding low-emission activities.
“Many jobs will also be transformed as tasks and working methods become greener. Climate change will also affect labour demand and working conditions, mainly through rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events.”
The report said green-driven occupations were typically high-skill jobs (i.e. managers, professionals and technicians) and employed highly educated workers in urban areas.
Green-driven jobs also included lower-educated roles in rural areas.
“High-skill green-driven jobs usually pay higher than average wages, but low-skill green-driven jobs tend to have worse job quality than other low-skill jobs, suggesting that, currently, they may be a relatively unattractive option for low-skilled workers,” the report said.
“The most required skills for green-driven occupations are those linked to the knowledge economy, such as critical thinking, monitoring, active learning, complex problem solving and decision making.”
The full report is on the OECD website.
