By Adrian Beaumont
Labor’s primary vote dropped two points to 27 percent in Newspoll, equalling the mid-September Newspoll for their lowest this term.
It’s one point off Labor’s record low in 2011. Pauline Hanson’s net approval jumped eight points to -1.
There have been three other recent federal polls, from DemosAU, Essential and Morgan.
The total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 49 percent in Newspoll (up one), 50 percent in DemosAU (up four), 51 percent in Essential (up four) and 46 percent in Morgan (up 0.5). Economic problems are probably hurting Labor.
The Coalition has gained one to four points in all these polls. They overtook One Nation in the Morgan poll and were two points behind in DemosAU.
Federal Newspoll
A national Newspoll, conducted October 26–29 from a sample of 1,200, gave One Nation 28 percent of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago), Labor 27 percent (down two), the Coalition 21 percent (up one), the Greens 13 percent (down one) and all Others 11 percent (up two).
This is an equal term low primary vote for Labor, matching the mid-September Newspoll. Labor’s record low was 26 percent when Julia Gillard was prime minister in 2011.
No two-party estimate was provided, but there would be a swing to the right given the primary vote movements.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -23 (59 percent dissatisfied, 36 percent satisfied). Angus Taylor’s was up one point to -10, his best since June (47 percent dissatisfied, 37 percent satisfied). Hanson’s jumped eight points to -1, her best since August (48 percent dissatisfied, 47 percent satisfied).
DemosAU poll
A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted October 2326 from a sample of 1500, gave Labor 26 percent of the primary vote (down two since the mid-September DemosAU regular poll), One Nation 26 percent (steady), the Coalition 24 percent (up four), the Greens 13 percent (steady) and all Others 11 percent (down two).
No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections gave Labor 64–77 of the 150 House of Representatives seats (72–85 in the August to September DemosAU MRP poll), the Coalition 37–56 (25–44 previously), One Nation 18–32 (22–35 previously), the Greens 0–4 (0–3 previously) and others 4–8 (5–10 previously). These projections apply uniform swing to the previous MRP poll.
Albanese’s net positive score was down four points to -20 (46 percent negative, 26 percent positive). Taylor’s was up five points to +1 (27 percent positive, 26 percent negative). Hanson’s was down two points to -14 (45 percent negative, 31 percent positive). Greens leader David Shoebridge’s was -16 (32 percent negative, 16 percent positive).
In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 36 percent (steady), Hanson 23 percent (down two) and Taylor 22 percent (up one). In head to head match-ups, Albanese led Taylor by 39–38 percent (previously 39–37 percent). He led Hanson by 43–33 percent (previously 45–33 percent).
Essential poll
A national Essential poll, conducted October 21–25 from a sample of 1,003, gave Labor 28 percent of the primary vote (down one since the late September Essential poll), One Nation 28 percent (up three), the Coalition 23 percent (up one), the Greens 12 percent (steady), independents 6 percent (steady) and undecided 4 percent (down two).
By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 52–44 percent, reversing a 48–46 percent Labor lead in September. This is the Coalition’s biggest lead from Essential this term. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was provided.
Weak preference flows to Labor and a low Others vote are features of Essential’s polls, but Redbridge in early October gave the Coalition a 54–46 lead over Labor. Strong preference flows from One Nation to the Coalition are hurting Labor.
In Morgan below and in the previous Redbridge poll, Labor was doing better against One Nation than the Coalition. This implies that Labor would benefit if One Nation stays ahead of the Coalition.
Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted October 12–25 from a sample of 2,711, gave Labor 26 percent of the primary vote (steady since the early October Morgan poll), the Coalition 23.5 percent (up two), One Nation 22.5 percent (down 1.5), the Greens 15.5 percent (up 0.5) and all others 12.5 percent (down one).
It’s the first time the Coalition has led One Nation in a Morgan poll since mid-July.
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5 percent, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 55–45 percent, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47 percent, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.
Adrian Beaumont is an Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. This article was first published by The Conversation
