Australian Farmers are facing a 70 percent drop in profits next financial year off the back of higher costs and lower production.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences 2026-27 forecasts, released today, show the value of livestock and livestock product is expected to decline by $1.1 billion in 2026–27.
“Higher input costs and lower crop and livestock production are expected to impact profits”, ABARES said.
“Average broadacre farm business profits are set to decline by 70 percent in 2026–27.”
Fertiliser and fuel input costs are expected to remain elevated in 2026-27, with farm revenue forecast to decline due to lower crop and livestock production volumes and lower prices received for livestock.
ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said that while the Middle East conflict was impacting input prices and global economic growth, the value of production overall was resilient.
“Farmers’ decisions over the last few months have been shaped heavily by seasonal conditions and gross margins,” he said.
“Despite the headwinds facing the sector, farmers who have received favourable rainfall are making the most of the opportunity.
“However, variable rainfall in summer and autumn has limited area planted to winter crops and pasture growth in some regions. Also, many cropping regions are expected to face drier than average winter conditions.”
Other forecasts include:
- Total crop production value is expected to fall by $4.5 billion in 2026-27, to $50.9 billion.
- Australian winter crop production is forecast to decline by 21 percent to 54.5 million tonnes reflecting lower average yields and a fall in area planted.
- Summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 15 percent to 4.4 million tonnes in 2025–26, still well above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
The ABARES June 2026 quarter Agricultural Commodities and Australian Crop reports can be viewed here: Agricultural outlook.
