Far more people are at some risk of heart attack and stroke than previously thought, according to research released today.
Researchers from Australian National University (ANU) and QIMR Berghofer say an updated cardiovascular disease risk calculator has revealed substantially higher numbers of people with “intermediate” risk.
The new calculator revealed that 9.7 percent of people aged 45-74 were at high risk of a cardiovascular event within five years.
A further 26.4 percent were classified as intermediate risk, where treatment should be considered.
QIMR Berghofer Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Team Head Ellie Paige said the findings were crucial for better care.
She said the insights could provide patients and their GPs with a valuable opportunity to act early and prevent cardiovascular events.
“This is a marked shift from the old calculator, under which 17.6 percent of people were classed as high risk and only 11.6 percent as intermediate risk,” Dr Paige said.
“Now, more than twice as many Australians fall into the intermediate category, where a conversation with a GP about treatment could save their life.”
The researchers analysed data from more than 115,000 people with no history of heart attack or stroke who had visited a GP between 2020 and 2022.
In 2023, Australia updated its cardiovascular risk calculator to align with revised national guidelines for assessing the likelihood of heart attack and stroke.
The new calculator was built using contemporary data from more than 400,000 people and updated for the Australian population.
It replaced a US-based equation “that was known to generally overestimate risk in the broader Australian population and underestimate risk in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples”.
The new measure factors in a wider range of information, including social disadvantage, use of heart medications and history of an irregular heartbeat (atrial fibrillation).
Heart Foundation Chief Medical Advisor and study co-author Professor Garry Jennings called on health professionals to discuss the benefits of treatment for patients in the intermediate risk category, particularly those with additional risk-enhancing factors.
“Our message to clinicians is that the intermediate-risk category requires careful clinical judgement,” he said.
“For many patients, a conversation about medication alongside healthy lifestyle changes could help avoid serious cardiovascular events down the track.”
The full report is here
