Global demand for air travel is expected to double by 2050, new modelling released this week shows.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said, under a mid‑range scenario, demand was forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres in the next 25 years.
This compared with 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) in 2024.
IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said the long-term outlook for air travel was positive.
“People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century,” he said.
“That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world.”
Mr Walsh said the long-term forecasts should help governments, industry, and energy plan for long term travel enablers, like infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition.
The forecast modelling predicted the faster growth in travel demand would be in emerging economies of the Asia‑Pacific and Africa.
Mr Walsh said the research also revealed that the COVID‑19 pandemic caused a permanent structural shift in global aviation demand.
“Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high‑growth scenario,” he said.
“While long‑term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating gradually.”
Historical analysis showed the average annual growth of air travel demand slowed from 6.1 percent (compound annual growth rate) between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5 percent between 1998 and 2024.
“The central scenario for 2024-2050 projects a further slowing to 3.1 percent,” Mr Walsh said.
“This gradual moderation reflects market maturity rather than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers continue to rise significantly.”
The full report can be found here.
