South-east Queensland can expect above-average rainfall during the 2026-27 summer period, along with hotter than normal days and nights.
Bureau of Meteorology forecasts released today said eastern New South Wales would also have above-average rain while the tropical north was likely to be drier than usual.
The wetter conditions are expected to be particularly widespread in December.
Above-average rainfall is likely across much of the southern two-thirds of mainland Australia, excluding most of Victoria and far south-east South Australia.
The Bureau defines unusually high rainfall as totals in the wettest 20 percent of comparable summer periods recorded between 1981 and 2018.
Despite the wetter outlook, temperatures are also expected to be higher than average.
The Bureau said maximum and minimum temperatures were very likely to be above average across almost all of Australia during summer, with probabilities exceeding 80 percent.
There is also an increased likelihood of unusually hot days across much of the country, particularly eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and the tropical far north.
Unusually warm nights are also more likely across much of Australia, with probabilities ranging from 60 to more than 80 percent in many areas.
Strong El Niño developing
The outlook comes as a strong El Niño continues to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Bureau said all climate models, including its own, forecast further warming of the tropical Pacific, with El Niño likely to peak as a very strong event around November or December.
However, the Bureau cautioned that a strong El Niño did not necessarily mean equally strong impacts on Australian rainfall and temperatures.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is only one of several climate influences affecting Australia’s seasonal weather patterns.
Warmer oceans may fuel storms
Ocean temperatures around Australia could also influence rainfall and storm activity over the coming months.
The Bureau’s analysis for the week ending November 1 showed sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg above average around much of Australia’s southern and south-eastern coastline.
Waters to Australia’s north and north-east were generally near or below average, but are forecast to warm over coming months, particularly in the Coral Sea.
The Bureau said warmer ocean waters could increase atmospheric moisture and energy available to fuel storms and rain systems, raising the potential for intense rainfall.
Global sea surface temperatures also remain at record levels, with October 2026 the warmest October on record at 1.05C above the 1961–1990 average.
