By Adrian Beaumont
Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22.
One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points in DemosAU.
In Morgan, the Coalition and One Nation are tied at 22.5 percent each, while Essential gives the Coalition a three-point lead. The Freshwater poll was conducted before the Coalition split, and gives the Coalition a nine-point lead.
Two polls have given a Labor versus One Nation two-party estimate. In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. This was despite primary votes of 31 percent Labor, 25 percent One Nation and 20 percent Coalition.
An early January Fox & Hedgehog poll gave Labor a 56–44 lead against One Nation, compared with 53–47 against the Coalition, from primary votes of 29 percent Labor, 25 percent Coalition and 21 percent One Nation.
Analyst Kevin Bonham said that in the Senate at the 2025 election, with exhaust removed, nationally Coalition preferences favoured One Nation over Labor by 75.6–24.4, while Greens preferences were stronger for Labor against One Nation than against the Coalition.
As the Senate uses an electronic distribution of preferences, all preference flows can be obtained from the electoral commission’s data. This is not the case for the House of Representatives, where only minor party preference flows between Labor and the Coalition are recorded.
Furthermore, the Coalition has already lost its right-wing supporters to One Nation, so preferences of remaining Coalition voters may be better for Labor.
Compared with late December or early to mid-January issues of the same polls, there have been primary vote gains for Labor, suggesting the Bondi effect is fading. The last issue of Freshwater was in October and the last issue of Essential in early December.
YouGov poll has One Nation second
A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted January 20–27 from a sample of 1500, gave Labor 31 percent of the primary vote (up one since an unpublished late December YouGov poll), One Nation 25 percent (up five), the Coalition 20 percent (down four), the Greens 12 percent (down one), independents 6 percent (steady) and others 6 percent (down one).
Video included in the poll article has Labor leading the Coalition by 55–45 and One Nation by 57–43, presumably using respondent preferences.
In rural seats, One Nation led the Coalition by 35–21 on primary votes, putting them on track to gain many conservative rural seats from the Coalition.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval was -16 with 55 percent dissatisfied and 39 percent satisfied. Sussan Ley’s net approval was -31. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 47–29. On immigration, 64 percent wanted it decreased, 28 percent stay about the same and just 8 percent increased.
On Bondi, 28 percent thought Albanese had responded very badly, 21 percent not as well as can be expected, 38 percent as well as can be expected and 5 percent very well.
Morgan poll has One Nation and Coalition tied
A national Morgan poll, conducted January 19–25 from a sample of 1653, gave Labor 30.5 percent of the primary vote (up two since the January 12–18 Morgan poll), the Coalition 22.5 percent (down 1.5), One Nation 22.5 percent (up 1.5), the Greens 13 percent (down 0.5) and all Others 11.5 percent (down 1.5).
By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 56.5–43.5, a three-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. No Labor vs One Nation two-party figure was provided.
In a YouGov poll, 38 percent thought Anthony Albanese responded to the Bondi attack as well as can be expected.
Adrian Beaumont is an Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. The full version of this story, covering all polls is on The Conversation
