Retailers say early trends in back-school shopping reflect a “worrying pattern” of consumer spending.
The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) said back-to-school spending was set to rise in 2026 but the number of people shopping was down.
This highlighted growing financial strain on lower-income households.
ARA CEO Chris Rodwell said the lower participation rate pointed to a “worrying pattern”.
“Back-to-School is the first major seasonal moment for retail after Boxing Day and peak-season trading,” he said.
“While these are largely essential purchases, they provide important early-year momentum for many retailers.
“At the same time, we are seeing fewer households participating in major retail events in the past year, while those that can afford to spend are spending more. It’s a narrowing market, and it reflects the pressure many families remain under.”
The data is based on an ARA-Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted with an Australian-wide cross-section of 10,977 Australians aged 18+ in December and January.
It showed 4.5 million people planned to spend on back-to-school purchases, down from around 5.1 million last year.
Despite the drop, back-to-school outlays were forecast to climb to $2.9 billion, up $200 million year-on-year, driven by higher average spending of $573 per shopper – up $48 (9.1 percent) on 2025.
“With 600,000 fewer Australians able to take part in essential school spending this year, it’s a strong sign some household budgets are still under stress,” Mr Rodwell said.
“Now is not the time to add further pressure through interest rate hikes, with consumer demand clearly constrained.”
The full statement is on the ARA website.
